Some call me cheap. Others stingy. I prefer thrifty. And in the world of daily fantasy sports, finding the best bargains can lead you to the promise land of those jubilant $3.60 pots at the end of the pretend football rainbow.
These are my bargain bin dumpster dives for the upcoming NFL week.
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Last week’s bin treated us rather fairly, but I owe you an apology if you followed those tight end picks. Larry Donnell and Owen Daniels combined for less than seven points and completely ripped apart what could’ve been an overall decent weekend.
On the brighter side, Tom Brady moved in as our most valuable quarterback pick of the year so far, throwing up better than 33 points for just a $6,000 salary. Thanks to Tommy boy, I stayed alive in the million dollar tournament over at DraftKings and finished somewhere in the 10,000-ish range. Mom would be so proud.
Colin Kaepernick ($6,500) @ DEN
Road game, in Denver, primetime, keeping up with Peyton — no, Colin Kaepernick won’t have an easy game on Sunday night. But he does enter this game with some confidence after throwing for nearly 350 yards and three scores last Monday (albeit against the Rams).
Not to mention, while the Denver defense is undoubtedly improved from last season, they’re allowing better than 17 fPts per game to opposing quarterbacks — and that’s including Drew Stanton’s sub-five point outing in Week 4. Take away Stanton’s stink and quarterbacks are averaging better than 21 fPts against the Broncos through five games.
Kaepernick presents a decent ceiling given his price point. The last dual-threat quarterback the Broncos faced was in Week 3 when Russell Wilson rushed for 40 yards and posted 24 points. There’s no reason Kaep can’t put up similar numbers.
Russell Wilson ($6,800) @ STL
St. Louis gives up lots on defense (see: Kaep last Monday night) and the Seahawks enter this game after dropping a tough one at home to Dallas last week. This one could get out of hand if Seattle comes into St. Louis with as much tenacity as we think they will.
Ben Roethlisberger ($5,700) v. HOU
Unless your name is Robert Griffin III, you’ve posted pretty good totals as a quarterback against the Texans this season. Houston is allowing almost 19 fPts to opposing quarterbacks through six games, including RG3’s 9.8 in Week 1.
Big Ben only has two multi-touchdown games so far this season, so his week-to-week outputs aren’t all that impressive. A modest stat line however, which should give you something like 17-19 points, is a decent return at his salary.
Eddy Lacy ($4,700) v. CAR
102, 70, 264, 127, 85, 193.
Those are team rushing totals against the Carolina Panthers this season through six weeks. Needless to say, they’re susceptible to being gashed wide open.
Eddy Lacy has been beyond frustrating this season, so any concern or caution moving forward with this pick is understandable. But in addition to Carolina and their suspect run defense, Lacy is averaging close to six yards per carry and close to 80 yards per game when playing at Lambeau this season (opp: NYJ, MIN).
Meanwhile, the Panthers are giving up more than 140 rushing yards per game on the road.
If you’re in the belief that Carolina focuses on containing Jordy Nelson in this game, then things should open for Lacy both on the ground and in the passing game.
Justin Forsett ($5,600) v. ATL
Ya’know who’s worse at stopping the run than Carolina? The Falcons.
Through six weeks, Atlanta is giving up more than 141 rushing yards per game, and their very worst games have all come away from the Dirty Bird Dome this season, allowing more than 372 total yards and 31.6 points per game on the road.
One way or another, the Ravens are going to get their yards, and Justin Forsett is the best back in Baltimore. This is a good price for a dual-threat running back against a very weak opponent.
Ben Tate ($5,300) @ JAX
Averaging 18 fantasy points per game the past two weeks, Ben Tate has been on quite the run now that he appears healthy (which is always wishy washy and none of us ever really know).
The Browns travel to Jacksonville this week to take on a run defense who’s more than accustomed to being exposed. The Jaguars are allowing 117 rushing yards per game through six this season, and things won’t get any easier against this Cleveland ground attack.
Golden Tate ($5,900) v. NO
This might be the seventh week in a row that Golden Tate has made the bin, as his price tag always seems to be one of the friendliest on the market.
We can bitch all we want about just one lonely touchdown this season, but a better counter would be Tate and his six consecutive games with double-digit totals. And now with Calvin Johnson out with an injury, Tate is becoming an even more important part of the Lions offense.
Those low five grand salaries were a whole lot better than these flirting-with-sixes tags, but Tate is still great value this week against a New Orleans defense giving up close to 270 passing yards per game.
Jarvis Landry ($4,100) @ CHI
By far the riskiest play in the bin this week, Jarvis Landry is available for predictably cheap. His touchdown last week is all the reason for his $1,000 salary increase from Week 6, but his talent and linkup with Ryan Tannehill appears to be a real thing.
Anyone who knows me or reads my stuff knows I’m head over heels in love with Jarvis (check out my scouting report here), so this pick may be a tad bias. However, the Bears are giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game and have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air — all of which somewhat bodes well (fantasy wise, anyway) for a Dolphins team that will need to throw to stay in the game.
Landry’s performance last week would seem to be enough to keep him in the starting lineup, and if he plays the 78 percent of offensive snaps like he did in his new role, the $4,100 salary is a steal.
DeSean Jackson ($6,300) v. TEN
The story on DeSean Jackson will likely remain the same throughout the rest of the season: high ceiling, low floor.
While it’s hard to trust this Redskins offense, Jackson is not only the team’s BEST playmaker, but also (arguably) their ONLY playmaker right now. If the Redskins want to do things on offense, they’ll need Jackson.
After $4,600 and $4,900 salaries the past two weeks — and the nearly 54 combined fantasy points in those two games — Jackson’s price tag skyrockets enough this week to at least pause when assembling your roster.
Tennessee has allowed at least one 100+ yard receiver in four of their six games this season, so the Titans appear to be a favorable matchup. The concern, however, stems from the unpredictable game plan for Washington heading into this must-win. Do they pound the ball with Alfred Morris ? Or do they go for the jugular and air it out?
We’ve seen Jackson lay some eggs already this season in Week 2 and Week 4, but his floor this week feels more like a low-end double-digit total without a score. The $6,300 may be worth the upside.
Jordan Cameron ($4,600) @ JAX
Jordan Cameron rose from the dead last week, posting 102 yards and better than 22 fantasy points, and he has a great opportunity to continue the resurrection (?) this week against a Jaguars team allowing an average of close to 300 passing yards and two touchdowns per game.
Jordan Reed ($5,000) v. TEN
He may be made of glass, but Jordan Reed is really, really good. Set durability aside for a second and Reed is arguably a top-five tight end in the NFL.
Having allowed more than 300 yards and four touchdowns through six games, opposing tight ends are averaging 12.7 fantasy points per game against this Tennessee defense. And while we must remind ourselves of the Redskins’ unpredictable nature, Reed seems to always be a critical piece of the game plan when healthy.
He’s constantly moved about the offense, he sees plenty of targets, and his hands are sure. Reed carries nice value this week against the Titans.
- Not a terrible option, by the way. And available for just $4,600. (back)